Capitol Outlook 2026

Big Picture

Short sessions move quickly. They are only 60 days and provide an opportunity for legislators to “tidy” things up from the previous long session. They follow the odd-numbered, 105-day sessions during which legislators labor to draft a two-year operating budget. Short sessions are customarily centered on adjusting that budget and reconsidering bills that died in the longer session. This year follows the pattern to a certain extent with some major wrinkles. There is not a whopping $16 billion deficit, but a not-to-be-dismissed, $2.3 billion one, in part a result of the havoc created by the President and Congress.

Session will end March 12. As of this writing, much still hangs in the balance. Though there is hope of passing the Millionaires Tax, the projected revenue is years away from being realized. So legislators must consider some short-term tax increases and loophole closings to deliver essential services and protect Washington’s most vulnerable.

SJM 8002, Level the Playing Field, made a nice exit from the Senate. The vote was unanimous in support. As the session proceeds, deadlines occur closer together and create more frenzied and, hopefully, strategic advocacy.

The Elephant in the Living Room

In November, all 98 Representatives and a third to a half of the Senators will be up for reelection. A handful of these members will opt not to run for another term, though most will likely wish to return. Some will be voted out. All elections are important, but many would argue this year’s election, including Congressional midterms, is one of the most consequential in history.

Messaging by the parties is one of the goals of the short, election year session. The Democrats, as the majority party, must show they know how to govern. The Minority party, the Republicans, will argue that the Democrats’ policy and budget priorities don’t represent the will of the people. Let’s examine two examples of how this might play out.

The Millionaires' Tax

The proposed Millionaires' Tax, in its form as of this writing, has wide Democratic support in the Legislature. The bill will change as it proceeds through the Senate and the House. The bill would levy a tax on incomes greater than $1 million per annum. It would be collected beginning in 2028 and bring in about $3.5 billion a year, affecting about 30,000 taxpayers. The bill also provides some tax relief from the B&O tax to small businesses. Tax proceeds would flow to cities and counties to help pay for public defense, K-12 schools, human services, and other state agencies.

The Democrats and proponents pitch the Millionaires' Tax as fair. It would right-size our upside-down tax code, where lower-income people pay a greater percentage of their dollars on taxes than rich people do. The Repubicans argue that the proposed tax ignores the will of the people who have rejected proposed income taxes in the past. The current bill has an emergency clause which would likely exempt it from a referendum to repeal it in November. Opponents could still mount a campaign to place an initiative on the November ballot to repeal the measure.

Terrible, No-Good Initiatives to the Legislature

IL26-001, another Brian Heywood and Let’s Go Washington effort, would reverse the student and school protections the Legislature added last year to the so-called “Parents’ Bill of Rights.” The new initiative would allow parents to opt their kids out of academic activities that address sexuality, religion, mental health, and other topics.

This initiative threatens the safety of our kids. With the release of private records, students who may be LGBTQ+ would be in peril from unsupportive families, putting them at risk of abuse, mental health crises, etc. Students have a right to learn in a safe environment and seek help without fear of exposure.

IL26-238 would prohibit transgender girls, or anyone assigned male at birth, from participating with cisgender girls in athletics at K-12 schools. In addition, the initiative would require girls to submit documentation of their assigned sex at birth as part of a physical exam to play on these teams.

We are vehemently opposed to these initiatives. PSARA conducted a “decline to sign” campaign. Unfortunately, the initiatives garnered the requisite number of signatures. The Legislature has declined to hear the initiatives so they will go directly to a vote of the people in November. Republicans argued that the Democrats should have heard the initiatives and have sponsored their own informal listening sessions.

Final Words

Time will tell how voters receive the messages. PSARA will work with allies to defeat the harmful Heywood initiatives, as well as protect the Millionaires Tax from repeal should it pass into law this session.