While Donald Trump and his foreign policy team continue to strain relations with countries around the world, US-Philippine relations were further strengthened in the recent state visit to Washington DC by Philippine President Bong Bong Marcos in late July. The visit comes at a very important political time, as Trump’s war against China continues to escalate and the US vies for political power in the Asia Pacific region. Marcos is the first Southeast nation president to visit the US during Trump’s second term.

Marcos’ close relationship is a 180-degree turn from the previous Philippine President, Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte strengthened bilateral Philippine-China relations that resulted in concrete China support during the Covid-19 pandemic, increased economic trade and investments, and Chinese- funded infrastructure projects.

It remains to be seen if Marcos’ friendly relations with the US will help bolster his popularity amongst the Philippine population. Midway into a six year term, Marcos’ popularity, according to the well-respected Pulse Asia March/April survey, has plummeted to 25% approval rating, 53% disapproval, and 22% no opinion/undecided. In the same survey, Marcos’ arch enemy and embattled Vice President, Sarah Duterte, received a 59% approval rating – an increased rating many believe is related to online and in-person organizing related to the opposition of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest of Rodrigo Duterte. The elder Duterte is currently being held in the ICC’s jail awaiting trial for crimes against humanity, including murder, rape, and torture, as related during the period of November, 2011 through March 2019 as pertaining to Duterte’s “war on drugs.”

The fallout between the Marcos and Duterte camps are important for US strategic interests in the Asia Pacific region. Since the beginning of US intervention in the Philippines in 1898, the Philippines became important because of its military positioning to that entire region. Under BB Marcos and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the US has established more US military facilities in the Philippines, including the deployment of missile systems, even though there are no more military bases there. Marcos’ pro-US stance is important for Trump’s aggressive position against China.

The recent May Philippine elections reflect a divided country with a newly elected Philippine Congress mainly divided into those two camps. However, a new progressive camp has begun to emerge, breathing hope for democratic economic and political reforms in the Philippines. Led by the only opposition leader in the Senate, Senator Risa Hontiveros from the social democratic Akbayan Party, has succeeded in building a big tent that resulted in the election of three members of the Akbayan Party to the House of Representatives as well as a handful of well positioned members from the liberal and independent parties. These include former Senator Leila De Lima who was imprisoned for seven years by Rodrigo Duterte after she led a Congressional investigation around murders carried out during his war against drugs.

This progressive camp has already introduced many democratic reform Congressional bills, but their footing is fragile in light of the dominance of family dynasties as represented by the Marcos and Duterte families. In the previous 19th Philippine Congress, 12 of 24 Senators, 162 of 316 Representatives and 60 of 81 governors were members of political dynasties.

It is common to see in one region Congressional members, governors, and mayors from one family representing different generations and jockeying from office to office if there are term limits. The current 20th Congress is almost no different. Therefore, in such a political environment, advancing a progressive agenda still remains a serious challenge. The political dynasties may differ in region and ideology, but they are united by a common interest in pre- serving the status quo. Previous bills to dismantle the family dynasties have met with great resistance, but there is an increasing interest by a new generation of voters. Currently, Millennials and Generation Z compose 63% of the voting population in the Philippines, with the median age of the general population at 26 years of age.

According to Josua Mata, Secretary General of SENTRO, a labor center that represents over 100,000 public, private, and informal sector workers, who was in Seattle recently for LELO’s Annual Dinner in June to receive an award for SENTRO workers organizing in a fac- tory making Lululemon wear, stated that the continued growth and revitalization of the Philippine labor movement is crucial to taking advantage of this current opening for progressive forces and deepening democracy in the Philippines.

While Trump can continue to rely on the Marcos dynasty to carry out US interests, the next three years leading up to the Philippine Presidential elections will be crucial for US military and economic interests both in the Philippines and in the region. However, if the progressive forces led by Senator Hontiveros can gain momentum, the traditional family dynasties might be facing Hontiveros as a Presidential candidate.