Donald Trump announced that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is his choice for Secretary of State and Carlos Trujillo for Assistant Secretary of State. This signals that the Trump administration will pursue a foreign policy in the Caribbean and Latin America focused on increased sanctions, regime change, and increased economic suffering for the peoples to our south who have cho- sen an alternative form of government away from capitalism.

Rubio and Trujillo are both Cuban Americans and have a long history of disdain for the leaders of Caribbean and Latin American countries who advocate for their country’s sovereignty. Trujillo was Trump’s US Ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), an international body that has displayed hostility especially towards Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Rubio was Trump's lead advisor, along with Senator Bob Menendez, in crafting Cuba policy during Trump’s first term. During that term, Trump reversed many of former President Barack Obama’s Cuba policies that re-established diplomatic and people-to-people relations with Cuba. This included policies that relaxed the travel restrictions for US- people, which resulted in over 500,000 people from the US traveling to Cuba by expanded air travel and cruise ships. The most damaging policy that Trump and Rubio instituted was placing Cuba on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. This policy increases restrictions on Cuban trade and access to foreign markets and banking systems. It continues to devastate the Cuban economy.

Despite international pressure for Biden to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, Biden only announced on January 14, 2025, that Cuba would finally be removed on January 29, since there was no mate- rial basis for Cuba to remain on the list. This decision was made after a massive international campaign and the intervention of Pope Francis. (However, by the time this article goes to print, this policy will undoubtedly be reversed by Trump at the advice of Rubio and other conservative Cuban American Trump advisors before it can get implement- ed.)

In 2019, Trump recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as its president, despite Nicholas Maduro’s election. Today, even though Maduro was recently elected president again, Biden has disputed the Venezuelan election and recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as president-elect, a move that Trump will also probably follow.

And while Latin America has had new conservative leaders in Argentina and Paraguay since 2021 when Trump left office, many left governments re- main in power, including Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. In Columbia, Gustavo Petro, Columbia’s first leftist leader, was elected in 2022. In 2023, Lula da Silva from the Workers’ Party was reelected as Brazil’s president.

US hostility to our southern neighbors, including Mexico, will continue to intensify under Trump as the inter- national body BRICS gains momentum. BRICS is an intergovernmental organization that was formed in 2009 as an alternative to the G7 bloc of the world’s largest economies. The founding countries include Brazil, Russia, India, and China and has now expanded to 10 country members. Cuba and Bolivia are now partner countries along with 11 other partner countries who joined in October 2024. Mexico has been considering requesting membership for a few years.

BRICS country members account for 46 percent of the world’s population. The developing countries are using BRICS as a method to use their local currencies on the international markets, thus weakening the US dollar. With China at the center of BRICS, they bring an economic clout unmatched by any other country, including the US.

While Trump can continue to wage war against our southern neighbors through tariffs and increased sanctions, BRICS and its member countries will pursue building its alternative organization and becoming an alternative economic development resource for those developing countries. BRICS principles based on non-interference, equality, and mutual benefit run counter to Trump’s foreign policy, which seeks a return to the Monroe Doctrine where everything belongs to the US. This includes the Panama Canal, Greenland, and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.”

At the same time, the continued harshening of sanctions will have the effect of increased economic refugees fleeing to the US. Since 2013, eight mil- lion Venezuelans have left the country. Many have gone to the US, due to the economic hardships created by US sanctions that include punishing other countries for trading with Venezuela. In the 2021-2023 period, one million Cubans left their country seeking better economic opportunities. Most of the Cubans who left have come to the US in the most significant migration wave in Cuban history. This massive migration presents another problem for Trump, who has promised to stop migrants coming into the US and to deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom come from coun- tries south of the US border.

Like so many of Trump’s MAGA policies that he wants to implement, Trump’s Caribbean and Latin America policies will face heavy opposition in this ever-changing world, where US influence continues to decline.